Rightsizing and Scaling Your Freight Workforce in Boom and Down Markets: How to Do it

Freight is a wild ride. One quarter, you have more volume than you can count and will onboard anyone who can fog a mirror. The next quarter your office is quieter than a carrier’s phone during a rate negotiation.

You’ve all lived through freight mood swings. Remember 2021? Shippers money at you to move their freight. The hangover wasn’t far behind. Since 2023, over 14,300 of your industry colleagues have been left behind as their companies scramble to stay afloat in a freight drought.

The smartest operators in your space know that true scalability is about building a business that can breathe: one that expands when markets heat and avoids hemorrhaging cash when they cool.

When the next market shift happens (it’s never far), this five-step framework will keep your brokerage or 3PL from getting blindsided.

Step 1: Monitor Market Indicators to Anticipate Demand Shifts

You need market intel like a captain needs radar. Keep your eyes glued to key freight indicators: OTVI, tender rejections, fuel prices, spot versus contract spread, and truckload capacity. They’ll telegraph what’s coming before your phone starts (or stops) ringing. HR Dive reports nearly half of logistics managers predict layoffs in 2025, citing prolonged market softness and tighter margins.  

You can easily match your workforce size to macro market signals to dodge hiring frenzies and premature cuts. Savvy operators proved this last year. In Q4 2024, they pumped the brakes on Q1 hiring after spotting consumer demand pullbacks and tender index dips. Reading these tea leaves gives you precious weeks to adjust before your competitors realize what hit them.

Step 2: Use Technology to Scale Without Over-Hiring

Your tech stack should work harder than your recruiters.  

Take Modern TMS platforms and automation tools as examples of how to multiply each employee’s capacity so they can handle loads that would have crushed them five years ago. It’s no wonder a FreightCaviar LinkedIn poll reveals that 76% of brokers see adopting new technology and improving automation will be most impactful for business growth in 2025.

Smart money flows toward AI load-matching systems that pair carriers with freight faster than your best broker, robotic process automation that knocks out invoicing while you sleep, and predictive analytics that forecast demand spikes before they hit —helping you absorb surges without hiring people you’ll have to let go in January.  

In a recent article titled “AI won’t replace you—but resistance to change will,” Fast Company found that “AI works best not as a replacement but as a force multiplier for human judgment—turning good service into great, consistent service.”

Your tech should make your existing people superhuman: not replace them.

Step 3: Build a Flexible Staffing Model

Think of your workforce like a rubber band — stretch it when needed but let it relax when demand drops. Mixing full-timers with temps, part-timers, and outsourced workers helps create elasticity that pure headcount can’t match.  

Consider cross-training existing teams. Train dispatchers to handle carrier procurement during slow periods. Maybe your bookkeeper rocks at customer service with the proper training.

Freight has seasons, too, so staff accordingly. Take a page from Amazon’s 2024 playbook when it hired 250,000 holiday workers without committing to year-round payroll.  

And consider moving back-office functions like billing, track and trace, and documentation to global support partners like Lean Solutions Group.  

Hard data backs this approach: outsourcing surged during the recent freight recession as companies struggled with declining demand and downward rate pressure. Half of shippers boosted their spending with outsourced providers over the past two years, while only 12% decreased it. And 43% expanded their provider base versus 13% that reduced it.

Step 4: Rethink Hiring and Retention Strategy

Ditch “just-in-case” hiring for “just-in-time” staffing with scalable HR pipelines. And guard your top performers like gold during downturns — they’ll remember who kept them when times got tough. Cross train these stars, create advancement paths, and upgrade their tech skills so they stick around.  

Flexible work options also win loyalty: reduced hours beat layoffs, project-based roles keep specialists engaged, and hybrid/remote arrangements for Dispatch or Sales save office space while keeping talent happy. Move people between departments when market conditions change — give your people and your operations some fresh air.  

HR Dive adds notes that smart firms chose hour reductions or strategic furloughs over permanent layoffs during the recent downturns. Keeping key talent “on the bench” keeps them away from your competitors.

Remember: Your best people cost less to retain than replace when the market heats up again.

Step 5: Plan Quarterly Reviews and Prepare a Freight Forecast War Room

Your company needs a recurring “freight forecast war room” where labor planning gets the same serious attention as your P&L. Every 90 days, gather your team to recalibrate your workforce against market realities by focusing on the following:  

• The Truth-Telling Metrics: Track KPIs that don’t lie: revenue per employee, margin per seat, and loads per ops staffer. These numbers reveal which departments need trimming and which need reinforcements before the next market swing hits.

• Crystal Ball Calendar: Map your labor needs against predictable volume surges like back-to-school madness, retail holiday pushes, and tariff preloads. Rightsizing means having staff ready before FedEx starts parking trailers in your customer’s lot.

• The SEAL Team Six Approach: Build internal “surge teams” from your cross-trained staff who can parachute into trouble spots when volume spikes hit unexpected markets. These flex warriors prevent service failures without bloating your permanent headcount.

• Disaster Drills (Without the Disasters): Run what-if scenarios quarterly: If volume jumps 15%, which roles need immediate backup? If loads drop 20%, where can you flex down without service impacts? Planning for both extremes beats panic reactions.

• The Quarterly Talent Forecast: Treat workforce planning like weather forecasting — it might not be perfect, but you’ll avoid getting drenched. Adjust headcount based on actual freight volume, customer pipeline changes, and margin pressure before they become emergencies.

Grow When It’s Time, Shrink Without the Drama

The freight market rides rollercoasters like nobody's business. When volumes spike, everyone scrambles. When they crash, tough decisions follow. Winners have built operations that bend without breaking. About half of transportation companies are boosting their outsourcing investments right now. It shouldn’t come as a shock: the best focus on cutting costs and on creating breathing room to weather any storm.

Lean Solutions Group turns this challenge into your advantage. Rather than simply scaling your team up or down, we will cross-train and redeploy your global support workforce for you, wherever they're needed most. Your back-office support services won't disappear during slowdowns—they’ll evolve. One day, your team will master freight documentation. The next, they’ll handle customer service or accounts receivable. This approach prevents the burnout cycle where your stars carry impossible workloads as you try to "do more with less." The smartest companies partner with us to build institutional muscle memory that carries them through any market condition and emerge stronger.

Call us today to learn more about how Lean can help optimize your workforce for whatever the freight market throws your way.

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